Cycling season preview

If I haven’t said it before: I am a huge fan of European cycling. I follow it very closely, and I find it hugely entertaining to watch. Though the sport isn’t very popular is America, it is one of the biggest sports in Europe, second only to soccer. Today, I would like to talk about what may happen in this year’s cycling season, which just opened last week with the Tour of California.

But first, a quick word on cycling in general. What most people don’t realize is that cycling is a team sport. The reason for this is very simple: aerodynamics. When one cyclist rides in front of another, the second person doesn’t have to pedal as hard because the person in front is breaking the wind. In cycling riding in front of others is called “doing work” or “working.” This is why most of the riders stay in one big group, called the “peloton” (French for “group together”)—a large group of riders can move much faster than a smaller group because of the aerodynamics. There are two basic kinds of races, stage races and one-day races. A one-day race is exactly what it sounds like: it is one ride, from point A to point B; whoever gets there first wins. A stage race—which is much more common—consists of multiple days of racing; the person with the most cumulative time wins. But there are also secondary prizes, such as best sprinter and KOM (king of the mountains, or the best uphill rider). The winner of these categories is determined by a points system. A stage race can contain flat stages, mountain stages, and time trials. In a time trial, each rider is sent out individually along the course, and their time is recorded at the end. Most teams contain about 9 riders, usually one GC (general classification, also called the “team leader”—this is the person who the team works for so that they can win the overall best time), one or two sprinters (who try to win the sprint points contests), some climbers (who are good uphill), and a few others who exist simply to work for the GC. During a race, what generally happens is a small group of riders will “attack” the peloton (ride away from them) and form a “breakaway,” which is out in front of the main group. On flat stages, the peloton usually catches the breakaway near the end, and the sprinters races for the finish line ahead of everyone else. On mountain stages, breakaways often “succeed” (make it to the end without getting caught). GCs try to get in breakaways on mountain stages; on flat stages, they consist mostly of sprinters going ahead to get sprint points. Lastly, a world on the league: it consists of about 20 teams, each sponsored by someone (because there is no money in cycling; all the riders have jobs in the off season). There are races all over the world and riders from a variety of countries, even though the league is technically “European.”

Now, on to my predictions for this season. As we saw in the Tour of California, Astana is probably going to dominate this year, rivaled only by Saxo Bank (formerly CSC, for the cycling fans out there). The reason? Astana has Levi Leipheimer (who just won in California for the third year in a row), Alberto Contador (winner of 2 grand tours two years ago and clearly the best GC in the world), Lance Armstrong (making a comeback, in case you haven’t heard). They also have Chris Horner and a good mix of other workers who can support the team. However, their problem is that they have 3 GCs (the men I just listed above), and none of them are going to want to work for each other. However, if they play their cards right and each one picks only one or 2 grand tours, they could walk away with all 3 grand tour titles. Also, I do not think Armstrong is going to be as dominant as previously thought. The reasons are simple: a) he is not as good as he used to be, b) he does not have a team that exists solely for him, as Postal and Discovery once did, and c) he has packed his schedule this year, whereas in the past he focused only on one grand tour, the Tour de France. But as long as Astana has no internal fighting, I think they are going to dominate this season.

Of course, they still have to beat Saxo Bank, who is ready as ever. Between last year’s Tour de France winner Carlos Sastre and the brothers Frank and Andy Schleck, they have more than enough GCs to go around. They also have great support riders like Jens Voigt, and as we saw last year Saxo Bank are indeed a powerhouse.

As for sprinting, my money is on youngster Mark Cavendish from team Columbia (the sportswear company, not the country). Cavendish dominated the sprinting scene last year, even managing to beating out veterans Tom Boonen and Thor Hushovd. I have no doubt that Cavendish will continue to dominate again, winning flat stages and sprint points in every stage race. In terms of time trialing, I suspect Saxo Bank’s Fabian Cancellara will also continue his winning streak. Though he is terrible on mountain stages, he consistently wins stages and almost always gets the best time on time trials. Though there are a lot of great time trailers out there, including Cadel Evans, Stephan Schumacher, and Levi Leipeheimer, I have little doubt that Cancellara will lead the pack when it comes to this aspect of the sport. 

I will provide updates as the season progresses.