Tuesday, January 27, 2009

NHL: Midseason Grades: Central Division

Quick thing on the All-Star game:

Of course, one of the loudest ovations of the night came for Tampa Bay Lightning center Vincent Lecavalier. After this season, his contract extension kicks in. And boy is it front-loaded. Montreal fans would love nothing more than to have their son come back to play for the hometown team. But I'll tell you right now. It won't happen. And if it does, my Tampa Bay Vincent Lecavalier t-shirt will suddenly skyrocket in monetary/nostalgic value.

ALL STATS UP TO 1/27/09

1. Detroit Red Wings (2nd)
-While we're on the topic of the All-Star game, it's absurd that the Wings had no representatives. It's equally foolish that Pavel Datsyuk and Nicklas Lidstrom will receive suspensions for not attending the game. I understand you want the players to show up, but don't force an injured guy to show up and potentially make it worse.

Enough! The Red Wings were last year's Stanley Cup Champions, and they've picked up right where they left off. The 2.87 goals against per game (17th in the league) isn't pretty, but 3.62 goals per game (1st) is a great number. Just look at this team's depth up front.

Pavel Datsyuk leads the way so far with 56 points in 46 games. Offseason signing Marian Hossa is showing he's worth the money with 47 points in 47 games. Henrik Zetterberg has been a little banged up (as usual), but he's not far behind with 43 points in 45 games. He's a little injury prone, but not too much; the injuries are never major. If he could stay healthy, though, I'd tell you to pencil him in for 40 goals each year. The guy can play:



Good work by the Red Wings management, who just locked down Zetterberg for essentially the rest of his career at a pretty reasonable price. But I was talking about depth! Jiri Hudler (39 in 47) and Johan Franzen (32 in 41) can supply a little extra firepower. My bad, I forgot Mikael Samuelsson (32 in 46) and Tomas Holmstrom (30 in 39). It's debatable, but the Red Wings may have the most 20 goal scorers by the season's end.

Sure, Nicklas Lidstrom has been a little off his game this year, but 32 points in 44 games is still good. Brian Rafalski is enjoying playing on his hometown (homestate?) squad (35 in 47), while Niklas Kronwall can score (25 in 45) and brings a nice physical element as well.

I'm not sure what surprises me/makes me want to throw up more: the fact that Chris Osgood has a 3.21 GAA and .883 Sv%, or the fact that he has a 15-3-6 record in spite of such poor numbers. Supposed backup Ty Conklin grabbed the reins while Osgood was hurt, and has posted significantly better numbers (2.33 GAA, .917 Sv%). The Wings don't need an incredible goalie: they just need a decent one. Still, don't be surprised if they try to swap for an upgrade at the trade deadline.

FINAL Grade: A-. I'd like to see the defense be better, but part of it is on Osgood too. Besides, Mike Babcock knows how to run his team. Expect them to be battling San Jose for the number 1 spot in the West for the remainder of the season.


2. Chicago Blackhawks (4th)
-Ah, the Blackhawks. The darlings of the NHL. Known for their incredible youth! Though it hasn't been working for them too well as of late.

Patrick Kane's (42 points in 43 games) recent 7 game scoreless streak isn't pretty, and the rest of the team hasn't handled the extra responsibility all too well (13 goals in last 7 games). Captain Jonathan Toews is good, but he gets too much credit (36 points in 45 games). I doubt he'll ever become as good of a raw scorer as Kane, but he can still be effective. And that name is pronounced "Taives" or "Taves" or "Tayves", not "Toes".

Somehow Martin Havlat (37 in 45) is staying healthy (has only played 70 or more games twice in 8 seasons), and he's making a difference. Rookie Kris Versteeg (36 in 44) has been invaluable, and Patrick Sharp is showing last year was no fluke (35 in 45). Both Versteeg and Sharp are "Stuff with Brett Approved". Sharp especially: this guy takes faceoffs, plays the penalty kill, scores goals. He does what's needed. Lastly, Andrew Ladd is slowly shaking that label of "draft bust" with 28 points in 45 games.

The Blackhawks powerplay has jumped from 24th to 9th, thanks to Brian Campbell (30 in 45). After Campbell, the defense is rife with youth, and not in a bad way. Duncan Keith (26 in 41) is also one of the best two-way defensemen in the league. Cam Barker has very quietly scored 19 points in 35 games, and James Wisniewski is still trying to find his game at the NHL level (7 points in 16 games).

The goalie rotation is particularly interesting. Cristobal Huet was signed over the summer to a rather large contract. Apparently the Blackhawks forgot Nikolai Khabibulin was still good. They've posted similar numbers (Huet: 2.30 GAA .919 Sv%, Khabibulin: 2.37 GAA .923 Sv%), but if anybody gets shipped it will be Khabibulin. His contract expires after this season and the Blackhawks could use a second line center. Rumors will gradually increase as the trade deadline gets closer.

FINAL GRADE: B+. They're young, skilled, and quick. If they can escape this slump quickly they should be okay.


3. Columbus Blue Jackets (9th)
-The only team yet to make a playoff appearance, let's hope they can do it this year.

Everything with the Blue Jackets essentially starts and ends with "Stuff With Brett Approved" left wing Rick Nash. He leads the team with 46 points in 44 games, and is easily the most intimidating weapon in their lineup. Nash plays a physical game, but his skills have never truly shown through his stats. Oh, and he scored this goal:



Not only was that a great goal, but it was a game-winner on the road in the closing moments. That's why he's the captain. In other Columbus offense news, Kristian Huselius ranks second with 33 points in 44 games. R.J. Umberger (26 in 48) wasn't the natural fit with Nash the Jackets were hoping he'd be, but he's still a contributor. At least he's keeping his head up. Derick Brassard (25 in 31) seemed to be the answer for Nash until he got injured. Regardless, there's hope in sight, as recent trade acquisition Jason Williams has 4 points in 4 games.

The leader on defense? Surprisingly enough, Mike Commodore. Commodore, usually viewed as a depth defenseman with a physical component to his game, has 21 points in 48 games. Just behind him is Fedor Tyutin with 20 points. Tyutin was acquired with Christian Backman in exchange for Nikolai Zherdev and Dan Fritsche from the New York Rangers, and while it seemed as though Backman might become the offensive leader on this blueline, his 4 points in 42 games say otherwise.

Goaltending? Steve Mason (2.04 GAA, .926 Sv%) is pretty much a lock to be nominated for rookie of the year, and it wouldn't be a stretch to give him the award already. It can be argued that he's a product of the system, but let's look at the goalie whose job he took, Pascal Leclaire. Leclaire posted a 3.83 GAA and a .867 Sv% before getting injured. He'll miss the rest of the season. In his place, Wade Dubielewicz will serve as backup. So far, though, Mason hasn't needed much help.

FINAL GRADE: B. Here's to the first playoff berth in franchise history.



4. Nashville Predators (14th)
-This is the one that kills me. My heart goes out to the Predators. Two summers ago, the team went through an ownership change. You figure it wouldn't be a big deal, but it becomes one when a franchise goaltender is shipped and the team lets go of its highest-scoring forward and defenseman to cut down payroll and make it a cheaper sell. Yet they still made the playoffs! A lot of the credit goes to Barry Trotz, but it was an uphill battle. Of course, as usual, they were shown the door in the first round by Detroit. Rough times.

Then, this past summer, they had to watch talented young Alexander Radulov leave for Russia despite still having a contract with the Predators. And just as it seemed they might make it again, they've dropped to 14th. It's still possible that they'll make the playoffs, but it doesn't look good.

Oh, and there are incessant rumors and whispers of the team being relocated due to monetary troubles. The concept of the team being moved is thrown around so much I'm surprised the players haven't gotten fed up and punched out a reporter. Like I said, every season the world tries to suffocate them, and yet they show up and make the best of it. Enough of this, though. Onto the team.

I take one look at that offense and it just reminds me of how I get pissed when there isn't any iced tea in the fridge. There is no real difference maker: it's a committee type thing. Evidence? J.P. Dumont leads the team in scoring with 34 points in 48 games. I don't want to say Jason Arnott is in decline, but his 29 points in 40 games doesn't bode well. Martin Erat (31 points in 43 games) is on pace for another "Martin Erat Season", which means about 60 points. The greatest disappointment is David Legwand, who has 23 points in 46 games for about 4.5 million dollars a season.

(INTERRUPTION: IT HAS COME TO MY ATTENTION THAT THE BLACKHAWKS AND PREDATORS HAVE GAMES TONIGHT. STATS FROM TONIGHT'S GAMES WILL NOT BE INCLUDED)

However, there is hope for the offense. Steve Sullivan has completed his comeback from some back problems, and he was a point per game player in a Nashville uniform in the past. 2 points in 5 games isn't much, but it's a start.

This team has a pretty underrated defensive unit. Finally, though, "Stuff With Brett Approved" defenseman Shea Weber is getting the recognition he deserves. Weber ranks second on the team in points (32 in 45), and his blast from the point (leads the league in defenseman goals with 14) results in both goals and opportunities up close. Not only that, but Weber can be one tough customer:



Ryan Suter (24 in 45) is still maturing, but I like him too and he may still have room to grow as a player. Dan Hamhuis (12 in 46) isn't playing his best hockey, but he can still be an effective defensive defenseman.

The goaltending situation in Nashville since Tomas Vokoun was sent to Florida hasn't been stable. The belief is, to put it simply: "Win and stay in". Dan Ellis was superb last season and was a key reason the Predators made the playoffs, but a 2.92 GAA and .899 Sv% doesn't quite cut it. Rookie Pekka Rinne has been better (2.33 GAA, .916 Sv%), and his 4 shutouts are crucial to a Predators team that has trouble scoring.

FINAL GRADE: B-. It's like there's a permanent cloud stuck over this franchise. The fact that they're doing this well is surprising enough. If they can make the playoffs, hand most of the credit to coach Barry Trotz and make that grade an A+ for a resilient group of players.


5. St. Louis Blues (15th)
-I guess things can go downhill quickly, considering this team came out of the gate with an 8-3-1 record. But two things set in rather quickly: injuries and reality.

The Blues have been bombarded with injuries. Top line center Andy McDonald and his 18 points in 16 games didn't last very long (thankfully, though, he should be back soon). Paul Kariya and his 15 in 11? Out for the season. Defenseman Eric Brewer has missed time due to injury as well. I wonder if the sole reason the Blues traded Lee Stempniak to the Toronto Maple Leafs in return for Carlo Colaiacovo and Alex Steen was so they could have more healthy players. Erik Johnson, the defenseman who, well, was, y'know...picked first overall in 2006...is out for the season because he got injured on a golf cart. I'll get to a Manny Legace injury later.

Don't get me wrong, they might not be much better off with all these guys healthy. But it doesn't help when they're all gone. One of the biggest surprises is David Backes (25 points in 46 games). I hate Backes with a passion (don't ask me why, I don't know), but he might actually be able to hit the 30 goal mark. Brad Boyes is still scoring after his breakout season (37 points in 46 goals), but his -22 rating definitely makes that stat line look a little ugly. Keith Tkachuk is showing he can still play (31 in 44), while young guys like Patrik Berglund (30 in 41) and David Perron (30 in 45) are stepping up. Hey, they deserve some credit: that powerplay is 5th in the league.

You may recall me mentioning how I'd like to see Cody Mcleod of the Colorado Avalanche score 20 goals this year. Same for B.J. Crombeen on the Blues. Crombeen's on pace to fall short, but it's still within his grasp. Of course, that's not Crombeen's typical routine:



There isn't much to say for this defense. Barret Jackman leads them in scoring (14 in 46), but he a) isn't that good, and b) is disliked by me. The guy you should be paying more attention is to the aforementioned Carlo Colaiacovo. Since coming in from Toronto, he has 12 points in 27 games as a blue. It's not eye-popping by any means, but it's not bad for a guy who has never topped 20 points in a season. Probably doesn't help that the most games he's ever played in a season in 48. Though, to be fair, he did spend 5 games in the minors that season.

I said earlier I'd mention Manny Legace's injury. Here's a clip first:



Yes, that was Legace who tripped on Palin's carpet and hurt himself. Legace is usually fragile, and if you seem him listed with an injury, there's no need to be surprised. Injured or healthy, a 3.12 GAA and .888 Sv% isn't good enough. Chris Mason (2.99 GAA, .904 Sv%) hasn't been much better. But Manny isn't all to blame: he's 5'10" and 200 pounds, which doesn't help when the NHL just changed goalie pad regulations and made them proportional. Legace has been better in the past, but it's just not showing right now.

FINAL GRADE: C-. It was a rebuilding season from the start. I'm just hoping that injury to Johnson doesn't stunt his growth as a player in any way. All hope for the playoffs seems miserably lost if you look at their place, but...look at the points. The Blues aren't too far out of a spot, and they won't go away just yet.



STUFF: The Wings won this season's division title before the season even started. Chicago should be a lock for the playoffs and Columbus can make the cut too, but neither of them can match Detroit. It's doubtful St. Louis and Nashville will make it.

4 comments:

  1. Brett - I know this is the Central Division post, but I figure if I post my comment here you're more likely to see it.

    Do you think the Devils have a legit shot at the Stanley Cup? They've won 8 in a row and Brodeur is coming back soon.

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  2. excellent question, steve.

    1. the way they're playing right now, yes. since brodeur got injured, I feel as though everybody realized they couldn't just rely on him to win every game. the offense has picked up the slack, and that's been the biggest question in the past.

    2. I'm not a fan of the defense, but coach Brent Sutter makes it work. if they obtained an offensive-minded defenseman at the deadline, it could be a big help. the devils powerplay sits at 15th in the league, but it could easily go up with a good addition.

    3. brodeur won't be tired. last season he started 77 games. 77 games in an 82 season. it's a lot, and he seemed tired by the playoffs. however, he'll be fresh, and if his injury keeps bothering him, scott clemmensen has shown he's more than capable.


    so yes, steve, I believe they do. that being said, there are two monsters in the west (san jose sharks and detroit red wings) who they'll have to overcome. still, though, the finals are at least within their grasp.

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  3. they've been particularly clutch in their last 2 games (specifically Langenbrunner). last night he scored the game-tying goal with 30 seconds in regulation, and then the game-winning one in OT. the night before, against the bruins, he scored the game winning goal in OT too.

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  4. I agree. langenbrunner will never be a great scorer, but he's the captain, and he's playing like one.

    of course, I may have to eat my words, since he's piecing together a good season and he may be on pace for some career highs.

    ReplyDelete